Pourquoi Haïti connaît-elle une croissance négative ? - Jmundo

Pourquoi Haïti connaît-elle une croissance négative ?

Les prévisions de croissance pour l’année 2020 sont mauvaises pour le pays

Le vendredi 5 juin 2020, l’administration de Jovenel Moïse a adopté un nouveau budget, après plus de neuf mois depuis que le budget 2017-2018 n’a pas cessé d’être reconduit. Dans ce budget, le pouvoir en place prévoit une croissance négative du PIB de -3,6 %.

Cette croissance négative est due entre autres à la pandémie du nouveau Coronavirus, commencé en décembre 2019. La catastrophe sanitaire est la goutte d’eau qui fait déborder le vase, après les peyi lòk, et le déficit budgétaire record de l’État. Déjà en 2019, le pays avait connu une croissance négative de 1,8 %.

Les notions de croissance et de croissance négative dépendent d’un ensemble de facteurs comme le PIB, le produit intérieur brut. La croissance est la mesure de la création de richesses dans un pays

D’une année à l’autre

Parler de croissance implique une comparaison. Il faut mettre face à face au moins deux périodes, et calculer l’évolution du PIB pour chacune d’elle. Le PIB d’une économie indique la quantité de richesse qui a été créée dans cette économie. « On le calcule d’une année fiscale par rapport à une autre, dit Thomas Lalime, économiste. L’objectif ultime des pays, surtout un pays comme Haïti, c’est d’avoir le taux le plus élevé possible. »

Aujourd’hui, le mot croissance est devenu une notion économique très utilisée. La croissance en elle-même est un phénomène assez récent. Aux 16e et 17e siècles, lors de la révolution agricole en Angleterre et aux Pays-Bas, pour la première fois, des pays voient leur production évoluer plus vite que leur population. Cette évolution a été soutenue, c’est-à-dire sur une longue période. C’était la croissance.

En Haïti, c’est l’institut haïtien de statistique et d’informatique qui est responsable de publier les chiffres du PIB, élément de base du calcul du taux de croissance. « Il y a croissance si les résultats de l’année suivante sont meilleurs que ceux de l’année qui précède, explique Thomas Lalime. Mais il faut diviser le taux de croissance du PIB par le nombre d’habitants, de façon à pouvoir faire des comparaisons entre les pays. »

En marche arrière

Les mots croissance négative semblent opposés, mais c’est une création assez récente des sciences économiques. La croissance négative est une diminution de la croissance. Pour certains, le mot a été créé pour éviter d’autres expressions plus alarmantes comme crise économique. Cette diminution peut être légère ou significative. « À cause du séisme de janvier 2010, dit Lalime, le pays a connu une très forte croissance négative. »

Mais Haïti est une habituée des indicateurs économiques qui voient rouge. « Souvent, notre PIB diminue, au lieu d’augmenter, explique l’économiste. Les différents troubles politiques y sont pour beaucoup. Quand les entreprises ne fonctionnent pas, il n’y a pas de création de richesse. »

L’année dernière, le taux de croissance du pays était déjà négatif. C’était l’année des peyi lòk, des crises de carburant, du déficit budgétaire record de 24 milliards de gourdes.

On peut parler aussi de récession, quand il y a une croissance négative. Une économie est en récession si pendant au moins deux périodes consécutives, son taux de croissance est négatif. « En Haïti, nous calculons notre PIB de manière annuelle, dit Thomas Lalime. Ainsi, pour parler de récession, il faut comparer deux années. Mais dans les pays plus développés, c’est un indicateur si important qu’on le calcule par trimestre. ».

Mais aussi, certaines fois la récession est si grande que l’on utilise le terme de dépression. Ainsi, en 1929, l’économie mondiale a été à genoux à cause d’une grande crise, partie des Etats-Unis. C’était la grande dépression. La pandémie du Covid-19 peut aussi être un facteur de dépression pour l’économie mondiale. Mais certaines opinions, dont celle du patron de la Réserve fédérale des Etats-Unis, Jerome Powell, assurent que la crise actuelle est différente et ne durera pas aussi longtemps.

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